On March 26, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar continued to fluctuate and rise, hovering around the 7.25-7.24 mark. It opened at 7.2519 and hit a low of 7.2378, rising by more than 140 basis points during the session; the onshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar also fluctuated accordingly. Climbing up, the intraday low hit 7.2037.

In terms of the central parity rate of the RMB, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0943 on the 26th, an increase of 53 basis points.

"As soon as the market opened on the morning of the 22nd, the central bank did not control the market rhythm as usual. The RMB-USD exchange rate was like a runaway pony, easily breaking through the 7.20 mark." A bank foreign exchange trader lamented to reporters.

Previously, the RMB exchange rate was basically stable at 7.20. On March 22, the RMB suddenly weakened sharply, attracting market attention.

Among them, on March 22, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell below the 7.22 mark during the session and closed at 7.2283 as of 16:30 that day, a drop of 289 basis points from the previous trading day, setting a new low since November 17, 2023. .

At the same time, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, which more reflected the expectations of international investors, fell below the 7.23, 7.24, 7.25, 7.26 and 7.27 levels during the session. It fell to the lowest intraday of the day as low as 7.2713, a drop of nearly 500 basis points, which was also the highest level in 2023. A new low since mid-November.

According to Zhao Xuequing, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, the decline in the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is a short-term fluctuation triggered by external factors.

In sharp contrast, the U.S. dollar index continued to rise sharply on March 22. As of 15:00 that day, the U.S. dollar index was at 104.2095, up 0.19%, reaching an intraday high of 104.24, a new high in the past month.

Another trigger was the sudden announcement of an interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank on the evening of March 21, lowering the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.5%, breaking the market balance.

The Swiss National Bank stated in a statement that its anti-inflation efforts over the past two and a half years have achieved remarkable results, and the inflation rate has dropped below 2%, which is in line with the price stability range considered by the central bank. According to the latest forecasts from the Swiss National Bank, inflation is expected to remain in this range in the coming years.

On the morning of March 25, the exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose by more than 200 points at the opening, successfully regaining the 7.20 mark; the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose by more than 490 points, and successively rose above the four levels of 7.27, 7.26, 7.25, and 7.24. .

In terms of the central parity rate of the RMB, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0996 on the 25th, an increase of only 8 basis points from the previous trading day.

On the 26th, both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates fluctuated and climbed again.

"Last week's 'Super Central Bank Week' has ended, but its impact will continue, especially since Switzerland has started the channel for interest rate cuts by developed country central banks, while the number of developing country central banks cutting interest rates is gradually increasing." Zhao Qingming, deputy director of the China Banking Management Research Institute It is expected that the RMB exchange rate falling below 7.20 is the result of a combination of internal and external factors. If the US dollar index attacks last year's high, the RMB exchange rate will continue to be under pressure in the short term.

Judging from the previous monetary policy operations of the central bank, it only lowered the 5-year LPR interest rate in February but did not adjust the 1-year LPR. The MLF and March LPR remained unchanged.

Now at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on March 21, the central bank pointed out that since this year, it has "not only insisted that the market plays a decisive role in the formation of exchange rates, giving full play to the regulatory function of exchange rates on the macroeconomy and the balance of payments, but also strengthened expectations and guidance to prevent The risk of overshooting of the exchange rate has been maintained, and the RMB exchange rate has been basically stable under the complex situation." He also emphasized that in the next stage, we must "increase efforts to revitalize existing financial resources, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and balance the short-term and long-term, The relationship between stabilizing growth and preventing risks, internal balance and external balance."

Talking about the future trend of the RMB exchange rate, Wu Zewei, a researcher at the Xingtu Financial Research Institute, analyzed to a reporter from the China Times that from a medium- to long-term perspective, China's growth target is set at 5% this year. The economic growth rate has picked up again and the fundamentals are stable. For the better; the Federal Reserve's March interest rate meeting maintained its three interest rate cuts. The shift to interest rate cuts will help narrow the interest rate gap between China and the United States. In the future, fundamentals are expected to resonate with interest rate differentials to jointly support the RMB exchange rate.

"In 2023, the RMB exchange rate experienced a long period of depreciation, with the onshore and offshore exchange rates once falling below 7.35. In 2024, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut became the basic consensus, and it is expected to start cutting interest rates around the middle of 2024, with a cumulative range of 50-75 Basic point." Zhao Xuequing further pointed out that as my country's economic fundamentals improve and the Sino-US financial cycle converges, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate to depreciate will be eased.

"However, considering the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut path and the possibility that my country will continue to cut interest rates, the convergence of Sino-US interest rate differentials may be lower than expected, the RMB exchange rate appreciation space is relatively limited, and periodic fluctuations may increase." Zhao Xuerqing said frankly.